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Nuggets vs. Heat: Betting Trends, Odds, Records Against the Spread, Home/Road Splits. How Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray's triple-doubles led Nuggets to Game 3 NBA Finals win over Heat. How it happened: Nuggets get big win over Heat in Game 3 of NBA Finals, lead series 2-1
.jpg "Nuggets vs. Heat: Betting Trends, Odds, Records Against the Spread, Home/Road Splits. How Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray's triple-doubles led Nuggets to Game 3 NBA Finals win over Heat. How it happened: Nuggets get big win over Heat in Game 3 of NBA Finals, lead series 2-1")
The Denver Nuggets needed to dig deep after losing Game 2 at home, and boy did they ever. Behind a pair of remarkable 30-point triple-doubles from Nikola Jokić (32 points, 20 rebounds, 10 assists) and Jamal Murray (34 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists), the Nuggets dominated the second half en route to a 109-94 Game 3 win over the Miami Heat. Denver now holds a 2-1 lead in the 2023 NBA Finals.
Miami, which got a combined 50 points from stars Jimmy Butler (28) and Bam Adebayo (22), must now regroup in Game 4, which will take place Friday at 8:30 p.m. on ABC.
Nuggets Betting Records & Stats
In 67 games this season, Denver and its opponents have scored more than 213.5 combined points.
Denver has an average total of 228.3 in its outings this year, 14.8 more points than this matchup's over/under.
The Nuggets are 45-37-0 ATS this season.
Denver has entered the game as favorites 61 times this season and won 43, or 70.5%, of those games.
This season, Denver has won 39 of its 51 games, or 76.5%, when favored by at least -160 on the moneyline.
Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Nuggets have a 61.5% chance to win.
Heat Betting Records & Stats
Miami's games this season have had a combined scoring total higher than 213.5 points in 52 of 82 outings.
The average total for Miami's games this season has been 219.3, 5.8 more points than this matchup's over/under.
Miami is 30-52-0 ATS this season.
The Heat have come away with seven wins in the 23 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
This season, Miami has won five of its 15 games, or 33.3%, when it is the underdog by at least +135 on the moneyline.
Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that Miami has a 42.6% chance of pulling out a win.
Additional Nuggets Insights & Trends
The Nuggets have a 5-5 record against the spread while finishing 7-3 overall in their last 10 games.
The Nuggets have gone over the total in five of their last 10 contests.
Against the spread, Denver has played better at home, covering 25 times in 41 home games, and 20 times in 41 road games.
The Nuggets record 115.8 points per game, six more points than the 109.8 the Heat allow.
When Denver puts up more than 109.8 points, it is 39-22 against the spread and 48-13 overall.
Additional Heat Insights & Trends
Miami is 6-4 against the spread and 6-4 overall in its past 10 contests.
In their past 10 games, the Heat have hit the over four times.
Against the spread, Miami has had better results on the road (16-25-0) than at home (14-27-0).
The Heat's 109.5 points per game are only three fewer points than the 112.5 the Nuggets give up.
When it scores more than 112.5 points, Miami is 15-15 against the spread and 22-8 overall.
Nuggets vs. Heat Betting Splits
Nuggets vs. Heat Point Insights
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Nuggets take 2-1 finals lead vs. Heat behind Nikola Jokić’s historic triple-double
Nikola Jokić became the first player in NBA Finals history with at least 30 points, 20 rebounds and 10 assists in a game, and his Denver Nuggets are two wins away from their first title.
Jokić has been dominant all series, but he took it to another level in the Nuggets’ 109-94 win in Game 3 over the Miami Heat on Wednesday. In 44 minutes, the two-time regular-season MVP posted 32 points, 21 boards and 10 assists and did not come out of the game in the second half.
The Nuggets, who now lead the finals 2-1 with Game 4 in Miami set for Friday (8:30 p.m. ET), also received 34 points, 10 assists and 10 rebounds from Jamal Murray.
That’s right — two 30-point triple-doubles on the same team, in the same game. Jokić and Murray are the first teammates to ever have 30-point triple-doubles in the same game in NBA history, regular or postseason.
The winner of Game 3 in a finals tied 1-1 has gone on to win the series 80 percent of the time (32 out of 40). This is the only point in the series in which there is only one day between games — which means the Heat don’t have much time to figure out their next move when it comes to Jokić.
Jimmy Butler paced Miami with 28 points, but shot 11-of-24 from the field. Bam Adebayo was great for the third consecutive game with 22 points and 17 boards, and Caleb Martin added 10 points off the bench.
Denver's in the driver's seat now – but history says it's far from over
A reminder: the team that took Game 3 of a 1-1 NBA Finals series has gone on to win the title 80 percent of the time. That's a good omen for Denver, of course.
But the stat is perhaps more self-evident than illuminating. As a series progresses, it becomes harder and harder to rally from deficits, if only because there are fewer games in which to rally. It's easier to need two wins in four games instead of three wins in four games.
More to the point: the 20 percent number is not insignificant. Teams have rallied from a 2-1 deficit to win the NBA Finals eight times, four of which occurred in the last 12 years. That list that includes last year's Warriors and the 2013 Heat. Here's the full list of teams who have overcome 2-1 deficits:
2022: Warriors over Celtics
2015: Warriors over Cavaliers
2013: Heat over Spurs
2011: Mavericks over Heat
1984: Celtics over Lakers
1978: Bullets over Supersonics
1962: Celtics over Lakers
1957: Celtics over Hawks
Of course, there's one problem for Miami: only one of those teams (the 1978 Bullets) overcame a 2-1 deficit without home-court advantage in the series.